Thursday, 13 August 2009

Trading Review 11/08/09

Stakes for all back/lays £2

I was almost exclusively scalping for 1, 2 or 3 ticks on the favourite with a couple of exceptions.

All races upto Lingfield 15:30 were not traded well with a couple taken in play to get a tick or two. I was feeling rusty and took a while to warm up. I got away with those races however the aforementioned race produced a huge relative loss due to the fact the race was again taken in play (with double staking tactics not working pre-race). After punishing myself by cleaning the toilet I sat down and traded very well for almost every other race until the 19:40 Muss where I did take another trade in play. This time I got away with it managing to scratch.

Felt very silly and confused, as if I was fighting an almighty force determined to indiscipline me. I then traded the remaining races well knowing that I will be doing all the dishes once the racing had finished.

Looking at the races where I traded badly:
At the 15:30 Ling I was in a -£0.11p position after a couple of poor entrances, looking at it for a few seconds I was hoping it would move up, the price quickly steamed leaving me at about -£0.50. Here I had another opportunity to red out, instead I increased my stakes in an attempt to scalp my way out of the deficit. Price did not go my way and I ended up with a larger red at the off.

In hindsight it is obvious where the mistakes were made. Should of redded out at -£0.11, but to have done this I would have had to have been very quick. There is no excuse though for not redding out at -£0.50. The opportunity was longer and I should of taken it. If I have had I would have been in profit for the day easy.

At the 19:40 Muss I had a similar experience, although the chances to red out were not so clear cut. My entrance points were poor and I should have killed the bad trades early. The race went in play cancelling my closures. I quickly placed an order in running and was matched in seconds for a -£0.05. I think the worst red pre-race was -£0.50. If I had taken this, even with the -£0.50 from the 15:30 I would have still been in profit for the day.

All the other races were traded well. I have taken great encouragement from today as I managed to keep disciplined for long periods and identified and accepted my errors. The next step is to maintain the discipline for the whole session. This will be tough but I’m sure I can pull it off with a little bit of positive psychology and reconditioning. I also felt more and more comfortable reading the markets the more I traded, which was a relief as I was feeling rusty when I started.

I think identifying the negative/undisciplined thoughts early and having a method to get rid of them quick whilst staying focused is key. There are breathing and other relaxation techniques that I have read about which I will be using in my next session to try and achieve this.

Other observations include the comfort with the graphs the longer I was trading. I appear to have them positioned in a way which is much easier to setup and read.

Betfair graph with 10sec refresh – top
Advanced candle stick chart with 90 data points - last traded price 10 secs – middle
Market overview with all runners under 20.00 – bottom
Trading on enhanced ladder with 1 tick intervals and colours adjusted accordingly.

I did use stop losses for a bit but developed a style from the middle of the session onwards where I preferred to manage the positions manually. I will stick to this as it is ultimately what I want to do. Also the stop loses do cut you out early sometimes when the market is making mini moves. Psychologically I do not feel the stop losses are doing much for me, and I am getting better and faster at closing at the right times (with the two highlighted races above being the exceptions to this).

Site was noticeably slower for last 2 or 3 races. In the last race I gave up about 2 mins before the off as the lag was really bad. Not sure why this happened, there are a few possible explanations (including my ISP connections, poor PC performance and Betfair response times). It does make scalping almost impossible. It is better not to trade at all then to try under these conditions.

Points to remember for next session:
- Regular breaks when I feel hot and my concentration is fading
- Relaxation techniques for when I feel emotion creeping in
- Look for multiple signs to justify entrance and exits
- Be confident with decisions as they are justified
- Warm up by reading this review and watching a couple of vids before trading
- Never go inplay intentionally
- Identify negative thoughts early – say them aloud if necessary
- Always punish these negative actions accordingly
- Do not trade in anger, fear or greed.
- Remember the bigger picture – longterm profits are only achieved with consistent performance over a large sample size.
- Always try to stay positive no matter what has happened in the last race/trade

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