Well the time for research is almost done. My house move is complete, and the Broadband & TV services are being installed within the next couple of days. With it all up and running I can finally set up shop for trading again. Have been fortunate enough to secure a late two week holiday starting next week. Great news as I really could do with a break, and it was looking less likely to happen until yesterday. It will certainly be nice to start this new chapter well refreshed.
I have a feeling this blog will be quite important once I get going again, particularly in regards to keeping myself motivated.
Thursday, 22 July 2010
Monday, 14 June 2010
to bet or not to bet?
Overall I'm happy to say that my betting exercise has gone relatively well, and it is much clearer which aspects will be repeated while others left out next season.
With the MLB performing so poorly I have decided to withdraw placing wagers and paper trade the rest of the season. It really is like no other sport I've gotten involved in with the results almost being completely random, a bookmaker's dream I'm sure. All the major football seasons are of course over, with the World Cup in full flow, there are only a few scattered leagues that I know little about - so the betting there has also finished. And of course with the NBA currently playing out the final, that season is pretty much over too. The playoffs were in comparison to the regular season a definite no-no for me next time - being much harder to predict particualrly with my style of spread betting. The next venture in the betting world will be with the NFL which I am looking forward to, but of course doesn't start until September. With that in mind the spread betting will need to be put on hold until the events I'm interested in start again.
I would also like to add my biggest respect to any punters who make a living from this. In many respects the thought and analysis that goes into a well executed and profitable betting system rivals that of trading. Some would probably even argue it requires a more organised and disciplined approach, particularly when comparing it to some intuitive trading styles. The margins for profits are tight, add to that a little variance and your clear astute can become rather clouded. At least with trading you can point the finger at your own performance whilst reflecting over a negative P&L!
Trading places
With the MLB performing so poorly I have decided to withdraw placing wagers and paper trade the rest of the season. It really is like no other sport I've gotten involved in with the results almost being completely random, a bookmaker's dream I'm sure. All the major football seasons are of course over, with the World Cup in full flow, there are only a few scattered leagues that I know little about - so the betting there has also finished. And of course with the NBA currently playing out the final, that season is pretty much over too. The playoffs were in comparison to the regular season a definite no-no for me next time - being much harder to predict particualrly with my style of spread betting. The next venture in the betting world will be with the NFL which I am looking forward to, but of course doesn't start until September. With that in mind the spread betting will need to be put on hold until the events I'm interested in start again.
I would also like to add my biggest respect to any punters who make a living from this. In many respects the thought and analysis that goes into a well executed and profitable betting system rivals that of trading. Some would probably even argue it requires a more organised and disciplined approach, particularly when comparing it to some intuitive trading styles. The margins for profits are tight, add to that a little variance and your clear astute can become rather clouded. At least with trading you can point the finger at your own performance whilst reflecting over a negative P&L!
Trading places
In my absence from trading I have had time to reflect and formulate some new ideas which I feel warrant a trial. Whilst blogging my progress I have found the emails and comments helpful, and some even inspirational in regards to pushing myself further if I was to ever give trading another go. Looking over my records I wasn't actually doing too badly, and my biggest problem on my last visit to these markets was mainly motivational. This time round I aim to trade one/two full days a week, leaving me with most of my time to focus elsewhere. I am still finishing some analysis but it is looking good so far and I will be implementing some of these ideas soon. This time it will be a more systematic approach, and I will of course be blogging my progress here as usual. At the moment it is looking like starting towards the end of July - perhaps a bit sooner if I finish early. Gives me just about enough time to recover form England's glorious World Cup victory!! Not?
Tuesday, 18 May 2010
Week 11
Spread Betting - NBA/MLB/Football
Stakes & Banks
NBA 1 or 2% * 171.63%
Football 0.5 or 1% * 101.54%
MLB 1% * 75.51%
MLB 1% * 75.51%
A bit of a sucker punch on Week 11. The main reason being the NBA had a terrible run of 6 consecutive losses, the worst run I've had all season, with the progressive staking system on these bets it made quite an impressive dent. Add to this the worst week I've had on the baseball, the relatively small profit gained on the football hardly made a difference to the total. The losses on the NBA are not a big concern as I know it's a decent system that has made me a nice total overall, however my doubts over the baseball continue to grow, I will be reviewing this after next week when I have some time to look a few details over.
Week 10
Spread Betting - NBA/MLB/Football
Stakes & Banks
NBA 1 or 2% * 200.81%
Football 0.5 or 1% * 94.96%
MLB 1% * 87.12%
Falling a bit behind with the updates. do not seem to be spending half the time I used to behind a PC, which is probably a good thing. Anyway here are the updates for the past couple of weeks.
Week 10 brings another good result for the NBA breaking yet another milestone in reaching a 200% bank. This has pretty much secured the NBA for next season, and I will need to consider carefully about how large a bank ro commit next season. Until then I will stick to the current staking system until the season ends. Nothing done again with the football, pretty much breaking even although I do feel with a slight adjustemnt to my selection process I could make this pay better. Finally, we have a profitable week for the MLB, have not really changed anything although the bank is still down sitting at 87.12%. I'm the least confident with the MLB although it has had it's best week to date.
Wednesday, 28 April 2010
Week 9
Spread Betting - NBA/MLB/Football
Stakes & Banks
NBA 1 or 2% * 190.20%
Football 0.5 or 1% * 95.39%
MLB 1% * 82.58%
Better week but still relatively poor. The main culprit continues to be the MLB with the bank dropping further to 82.58%. With a 1% profit target per bet you can see just how poor a start to the season it has been for the MLB. The football has almost redeemed itself having a much better week, bank now sitting at 95.39%. Not long before the footy season is over, and I'm being extra selective with my picks, due to the 'little to play for factor'. We hear it all the time players saying that they are professionals and that they put the same effort into every game, but realistically many players will be grateful to get out of the season injury free, not just so that they can waterski in Hawaii, but also many will have their minds on making it the World Cup fully fit - that to me is not 100% committed. NBA as usual going well, the bets are reducing due to the fewer matches in the play offs. Some great matches too which I like to catch whenever possible.
Speaking of which really looking forward to the Barca Vs Milan 2nd leg tonight, can the special one finish the job, not long until kick off now..
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